TWG XCVI: The Great Minnesota Get-Together

Started by mikey, September 11, 2017, 05:33:35 PM

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BrainyLucario

Okay, I'll bite on the Blueflower thing, that does seem like a smart move for the wolves. So, my current top 2 picks for a lynch: Olimar (Not that you did anything wrong, it's mostly just your playing style) and Blueflower
When given the choice between adulting and music, choose music every time.

blueflower999

Okay why did you bold four people in your post, that's just confusing.

Firstly, yeah of course I'm not the Guru. Fake claiming it was discussed between me and Brainy and we decided that it would be best NOT to, but then he rushed into the thread and posted not to lynch me because I'm the Guru. So I just went along with it. The hope was that it would:

1. Stop me from being lynched (which it kind of did)
2. Get me wolfed instead of THC (which sadly it did not)

According to Brainy, davy was on board with me false claiming it, so I didn't see a real issue. He's obviously the real Guru.

So far, BDS, Olimar, and E Gadd are the only 3 people that are on the table for my suspicions, although I don't have much of a lead either way on them.

E Gadd's been a liiiittle quiet lately, just showing up at the end of the last day phase to sneak in a vote for Tras. Olimar and BDS have been pretty aggressive, but I don't know if anything's enough to cast a vote yet.
Bulbear! Blueflower999

BrainyLucario

When given the choice between adulting and music, choose music every time.

Olimar12345

Quote from: blueflower999 on September 19, 2017, 06:02:23 PMOkay why did you bold four people in your post, that's just confusing.

Sorry, that was formatting. None were votes.
Visit my site: VGM Sheet Music by Olimar12345 ~ Quality VGM sheet music available for free!

E. Gadd Industries

@Olimar the reason I haven't made a public claim is because it won't do anything to say "I'm a human" because everyone's human in this game. But for what it's worth, I'm human & have never had an item this entire game. Brainy can confirm this, too. In reference to your paragraph about me, that makes sense, but I'm almost not strategic enough to think up something like that. I would've gone for him as soon as I found out to prevent any alliance whatsoever from forming, simply because no one else could've done anything about it (to my knowledge?) and no one would've known he was a blue, either.

@blue I've been quiet because I've been working on article reviews, trying to finish them up (24 in total) so I could devote more time to music & storywriting (and consequently, TWG)
"Everyone is crazy but me"
-The Sign Painter


The entrance to my lab is hidden... somewhere...
Spoiler

[/spoiler
[close]

E. Gadd Industries

Quote from: Olimar12345 on September 19, 2017, 06:22:43 PMSorry, that was formatting. None were votes.
That makes muuuuuch more sense, I was confused XD
"Everyone is crazy but me"
-The Sign Painter


The entrance to my lab is hidden... somewhere...
Spoiler

[/spoiler
[close]

davy

With five players unconfirmed, this leaves the following ten possible wolf duos:

Trasdegi/BDS
Trasdegi/Olimar
Trasdegi/Blueflower
Trasdegi/E. Gadd
BDS/Olimar
BDS/Blueflower
BDS/E. Gadd
Olimar/Blueflower
Olimar/E. Gadd
Blueflower/E. Gadd

I find the following duos less likely:

Trasdegi/Blueflower: Blueflower voted Tras to save himself last day phase, trading a wolf for a wolf doesn't seem to be the smartest idea. Also, Tras was voting Blueflower after THC was not an option anymore, meaning that if they were partners, Tras was willing to sacrifice Blue.
BDS/Olimar: Olimar is consistently posting that he cannot imagine BDS being a wolf unless BDS is playing god tier wolf. I don't think wolf Olimar would put such certainty in his partner.
BDS/Blueflower: After THC was not a lynch option anymore, BDS went after Blueflower. I don't think wolf BDS would want to kill his partner so easily.
BDS/E. Gadd: That entire first section brought way too much attention to the two of them. Additionally, I don't think a wolf duo would have dragged out a conversation for so long and I don't think wolf BDS would have started a (a that point pretty likely to succeed) lynch on his wolf partner.
Olimar/E. Gadd: Olimar has been consistently going after E. Gadd since day 1. This one is not as unlikely as the rest of the list, since E. Gadd was never in danger of getting lynched due to Olimar's vote.

That leaves the following five wolf duos as more likely in my opinion.

Trasdegi/BDS
Trasdegi/Olimar
Trasdegi/E. Gadd
Olimar/Blueflower
Blueflower/E. Gadd

I'm going to grab lunch now. I will continue posting after that.
Quote from: NocturneOfShadow
[davy]'s in a way different time zone so basically he pops in at like 2 AM and posts 500 words and wins the game

BrainyLucario

Wasn't E. Gadd the one who voted for Tras and sent him to his grave? He didn't have to vote for him at all
When given the choice between adulting and music, choose music every time.

davy

Quote from: blueflower999 on September 17, 2017, 03:16:01 PMAlso, suspicions of me are totally warranted and I understand the reasoning. Just realize that it's been a few years since I've played this game and I'm trying my best.

Let's start with this. I'm surprised that you understand the reasnoning for suspicions of you, because I sure don't. The only reasoning I have seen is that you thought BDS was needlessly dragging out the conversation with E. Gadd rather than vice versa, and I honestly agree with you. Was there some other reason why people were suspicious of you?

Quote from: blueflower999 on September 12, 2017, 03:51:39 PMDid, like, everyone skip over this post lol.

This caught my attention as well. Brainy claimed Control freak, but E. Gadd, BDS and THC were seemingly more interested in the conflict between E. Gadd and BDS. E. Gadd and BDS, why did the two of you not respond in the topic to Brainy's claim?

Quote from: blueflower999 on September 14, 2017, 08:09:16 PMThoughts at the moment:

I think it's safe to say that those leading the charge most vehemently against BrainyLucario to be the most wolfish. While it's natural to be suspicious of his actions, he was pretty clearly forcing it. Like I said earlier, he wanted himself to be lynched for some other reason, and the wolves went along with it because they get a free day. Unless the wolves are especially crafty (or inactive), they almost certainly jumped onto this bandwagon./

Thoughts?

This is a good human post. Could be a good human or a good wolf playing like a good human. Not much more to say about this.



BDS, you are playing very aggresive this game. First, that argument with E. Gadd was certainly not in human's best interest, and even though everyone seems to put the blame on E. Gadd, you could also have started contributing to the important thing at that moment, namely starting an alliance. Last phase, you have been aggressively attacking THC, and condemning THC and Brainy for their actions, which were, in my opinion, good or at least decent human plays. I do not see why such aggressive play would be neccessairy if you are human. As a wolf, however, it is benificial if humans don't trust the wolves more than the alliance, and BDS has certainly been working towards making humans not trust the alliance, and he has even succeeded in making Olimar trust him.

Then in this phase, you've made another noteworthy post:

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 19, 2017, 10:00:33 AMIMO, given this new information, I think Blueflower and Olimar are the most suspicious. At least in my opinion, the Fitness Guru is a more valuable role to the humans, so it would've been logical to assume that, if Blue was a human, and the wolf thought he was a special, Blue would've been the one wolfed (especially because of THC's earlier actions that reflected incompetency, which would benefit the wolves as well)... but, as you can see, he wasn't.

Olimar because I had though it would be logical to lynch either he or Davy regardless of what the first lynch was (as a way to play it safe), and now that we know that Davy is off the table, that, I think, puts Olimar more on the spot.

This post is just... empty? The only possible wolves among living players from human BDS's perspective are Blueflower, E. Gadd and Olimar. Saying that two out of them are most suspicious isn't really anything surprising. Then, he notes that he would have expected that blue would be wolf'd for being the better special. This reasoning is based on his own interpretation of the wolves' interpretation of the strength of the special roles, which I don't think is a really good basis for a suspicion. His suspicion for Olimar is even worse. He wanted to lynch either Olimar or me 'to play it safe', which is a bad reason on its own, and even worse considering BDS himself is a likely candidate to be lynched just 'to play it safe'.



Olimar, for starters, I'm very pleased with how you have been playing so far. Most of your posts have been helpful for driving the game further, which is not only benificial for the humans, but also for the game as a whole.

That being said, though:

Quote from: Olimar12345 on September 17, 2017, 07:09:37 PMNo. This is absolutely NOT how you play TWG. You have it 100% backwards. You are supposed to not give out information like that under any circumstances. The wolves know basically all of the roles now. Good job.

This post is just awful. First, it is a better play to reveal a special role (which will then get killed by the wolves), then to lynch that special. Sure, THC could have tried to make himself look less suspicious, but once the lynch was falling on him, revealing the role was a much better play then letting him get lynched. Also, after THC's reveal, and considering that there was a revive that was most likely going to be targeting Lkjhgfdsa, the wolves would be hitting a confirmed each night anyway, so confirming more humans beyond that wouldn't have helped the wolves further. Most importantly though, had you compared the number of confirmable humans to the number of remaining wolves, you should have been able to realise that we would be able to put the wolves in the situation we have now regardless of how many specials claimed as long as 1) the mocha holder would survive the night and 2) no special gets lynched during the day. I can't really say this post is indicative for you being a wolf, but what I do want to know is: why?

Quote from: Olimar12345 on September 19, 2017, 05:18:51 PMBlueflower false-claimed the guru role. This could have been a preparatory move made to use as an escape from the lynch, since it almost came down to him. In regards to the Baklava, davy: there's a part of your post I don't get:Unless there's something I'm not seeing, why wouldn't the hungry wolf just give the baklava to the fat wolf? This would give the fat wolf an extra life in case they got lynched, making the humans waste a second lynch on him in the process. It seems like a hella safe move that would be easy to write off as "oh I just randomly received the baklava, how weird! I guess I can't be a wolf!"

So, this next thing is not really a suspicion, but more food for thought. When I posted the thing about the baklava, I had briefly considered other options, but didn't really think too hard about it. Here, Olimar says that it is possible that the hungry wolf gave the baklava to the fat wolf, and I must concur that that is a good strategy. However, considering Olimar suggested it, could it be that he came up with it and executed the plan himself? Olimar and Blueflower are compatible partners: Olimar didn't go for the Blueflower lynch  yesterday despite being suspicious of him since day 1. Also, after some digging in the chatlog, I found this:
Spoiler
Olimar12345 - afgelopen zondag om 03:29
Hm let's see
So brainy used the item that keeps you alive
So there are three items left in play, assuming that lkjhgfdsa didn't have an item
(And odds say he didn't)
Chances are the Baklava was passed
For a second there I thought that could be used to clear a human role, but it could have also been passed to the hungry wolf as a safety precaution.
[close]
So Olimar was even aware of this strategy before I started talking about the baklava. Like I said, not really a reason to be suspicious of him, but definately food for thought.

And finally, there's this:
Spoiler
Prince Kay of the Milky Way - vandaag om 03:05
Yep
Question: did you or did you not think the Tras lynch was a good idea?
Olimar12345 - vandaag om 03:07
You can read my posts, I mentioned it pretty clearly
before all of the roles were revealed I thought it was a pretty scetchy move since there wasnt much that he did to be suspicious
Prince Kay of the Milky Way - vandaag om 03:08
(If he really was a wolf I promise not to rub it in.)
Olimar12345 - vandaag om 03:08
but now in hindsight it was probably a safer move since he was in the vanilla human/wolf pool
[close]
Once again, this is just... why? You knew Tras was in the vanilla human/wolf pool because otherwise Brainy wouldn't have voted for him. The fact that you now know that for sure shouldn't affect your opinion of the lynch.



E. Gadd contributions mostly boil down to the thing with BDS at the start, revealing the log with Brainy, figuring out that THC was a special and giving the reason for his inactivity. I have to agree though that the fact that he figured out that THC was a special is indicative of him being a human.



My leans on these four players are now as follows:

BDS: Wolf lean.
Olimar: Very slightly wolf lean.
Blueflower: Neutral.
E. Gadd: Human lean.

I'm not really inclined to vote BDS this phase seeing as he is not really compatible with any of the living players. I'd like to chat with the four of you this evening before deciding on my vote.
Quote from: NocturneOfShadow
[davy]'s in a way different time zone so basically he pops in at like 2 AM and posts 500 words and wins the game

davy

Quote from: BrainyLucario on September 20, 2017, 06:22:18 AMWasn't E. Gadd the one who voted for Tras and sent him to his grave? He didn't have to vote for him at all

Yes, but at that point it was already a kitb between Blueflower and Tras, so even if he didn't vote, Tras might have died. If your partner is at a 50/50 to die, bussing your partner isn't the worst of ideas.
Quote from: NocturneOfShadow
[davy]'s in a way different time zone so basically he pops in at like 2 AM and posts 500 words and wins the game

BrainyLucario

I've been leaning for Olimar for a while now. So, for now. My vote will be placed on Olimar
When given the choice between adulting and music, choose music every time.

davy

Quote from: BrainyLucario on September 20, 2017, 07:49:16 AMI've been leaning for Olimar for a while now. So, for now. My vote will be placed on Olimar

Reasoning?
Quote from: NocturneOfShadow
[davy]'s in a way different time zone so basically he pops in at like 2 AM and posts 500 words and wins the game

BrainyLucario

Quote from: davy on September 20, 2017, 07:52:24 AMReasoning?
Mostly for the points you mentioned. I also figure a middle of the road would be a good solid lynch
When given the choice between adulting and music, choose music every time.

BrainyLucario

Okay, I've been rereading my pm's for a bit about the claims and whatnot and the Corndog theft that occured. Here's my theory.

What if BDS is the fat wolf? Then it wouldn't make any sense for the baklava to be passed to him night 1. The corndog was taken away Night 1, so from the wolves perspective, they wouldn't have thought to give him the baklava seeing as to their knowledge, he'd still have an item. The item then could've been kept until a second night phase and passed on to him if the item he did have happened to be taken. Davy's action to remove it from the game also put a stop to that as well.  They also could've passed the baklava but what are the chances of that when they have two items at their side?
When given the choice between adulting and music, choose music every time.

blueflower999

Quote from: davy on September 20, 2017, 06:57:08 AMLet's start with this. I'm surprised that you understand the reasnoning for suspicions of you, because I sure don't. The only reasoning I have seen is that you thought BDS was needlessly dragging out the conversation with E. Gadd rather than vice versa, and I honestly agree with you. Was there some other reason why people were suspicious of you?
I mean I literally lied and claimed to be the Guru to prevent myself from being lynched in the last day phase. It's a pretty big red flag. I explained my reasoning for it earlier, but if you don't believe me and still are suspicious, I understand.
Bulbear! Blueflower999