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Author Topic: TWG CV (Off the Grid I): Roll of the Dice  (Read 2700 times)

Toby

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Re: TWG CV (Off the Grid I): Roll of the Dice
« Reply #135 on: May 07, 2018, 02:36:38 AM »

bum, i messed up a quote tag, but hopefully you can see my responses
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FireArrow

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Re: TWG CV (Off the Grid I): Roll of the Dice
« Reply #136 on: May 07, 2018, 09:23:57 AM »

I'm not going to look into everyone right now, but I don't think you were that keen on thinking Raeko was human, so I don't know why you're coming out with saying she was the most human looking player. Also I think people thought a Raeko/BDS partnership was likely (during day 2) and when majority of people voted BDS, i think that suggests that almost majority also didn't like Raeko. But also, my memories on people's opinion on Raeko are fainted, and I don't have time to do a complete look back on everyone, but I can do maybe tomorrow during a study break? I do guess it's possible with the BDS flip green people subconsciously also saw Raeko as more human, but there wasn't much discussion on that for everyone to believe she was most looked human.

Read the suspicion lists from yesterday, she was at the bottom of everybodies. I did think her being a wolf was a possibility if BDS was a wolf and the E Gadd or Tras lead didn't go anywhere.

Quote
bruh what don't make me bring up more logs, but I wasn't the only person to think of this, and it wasn't even my first thought; it being some weird BDS plan was. Also how am I the most likely person to know he was special? I think most likely is Tras if you want to put labels on most/least likely for the whole [Olimar: "Tras knew I was human"], tras switched last minute day 1. Also I already said that after thinking about Tras's response I think wolves just got lucky with Olimar; so yes, I'm allowed to have another thought aren't I???

At this point, you PR hunting is seeming a lot more likely to me than Olimar claiming to Tras.

Quote
lol no, if that was my plan, you said it enough for me in discord. I wanted to know who people voted myself, and I was hoping it might draw a few connections with player's avoiding each other, but as I already said, I realised voting as a whole wasn't active enough to really draw such. But I think it makes blueflower look quite guilty for his weak reason bandwagon-ish votes.

Point being you gave us an elaborate statistical analysis that yeilds very little. Still looks more like a ploy to look more human than one to actually find wolves.

Quote
So I'm still trying to process through some things and dig deeper for some extra information. Right now I'm thinking THC, but as partners for him it would have to be yourself (Firearrow) and blueflower maybe??? (I need to look into THC partnerships more because his pool is really quite small and has conflict-ions which I'm not sure I'd give THC credit for as a wolf to fake conflict-ions). THC had been against Trasdegi and E. Gadd from the start. Bringing up lots of unnecessary (if they're wolf partners) suspicious looking points on them. See: they copied his reasoning on the bds/olimar interaction. see the copied reasoning here I don't have time to search for THC's own reasoning but I can probably try tomorrow or THC might be able to bring it up for you. Also Greg was pushing for THC's lynch very early and placed the second (?) vote of the game on him. So that's quite harsh distancing if they're buddies, but I Greg isnt someone to play so wrecklessly as a wolf.

THC is the lowest hanging fruit right now outside of yourself. Considering Greg's adamant suspicion of him throughout the entire game, it's probably also the easiest way for you to turn a lynch away from yourself. I'll give you THC is not the most human looking person right now, but it's mostly because he's such a perfect fit for being your partner.

Quote
I'm wanting to look into you a bit more, and even Greg, I think both of you at times have seemed occasionally sheepish regarding certain scenarios. For greg it would be the raeko incident and for you it would be now, (although im not sure if the correct term is sheepish but i frankly have little time to think of a better word LOL). These aren't strong thoughts at all but I want to look into them more to get more details.

Yes, sheepish is a pretty bad word to describe the person about to push for your lynch if you can't convince me otherwise.

Quote
I think Olimar would have brought this up if I was PR hunting him? Plus I don't know why you think I would take such a risk to telling everyone the wolves must have been PR hunting if I was a wolf and that was genuinely what we were doing. I had no suspicion on me, I wouldn't need to take a risk like that to promote my humanity, I would have been free to coast the game questioning people here and there without pulling any risky stunts. I really can't get into this anymore atm cause time, but I'm pretty sure I've talked about this, or something similar regarding the same kind of topic before, so if you are able to find that and give it a re-read it would save me repeating myself :< (sorry no time maybe tomorrow, but now my non-study things to do are building up).

The point is that your constant questioning was not to find wolves but to find PRs. Refer to raekos post against you,

Quote
The Tras log was a possibility at getting the most likely person Olimar could have claimed to, to panic freak out and show wolf. I had to drop it because why would I continue pushing it? The log I had was fake, I lied to everyone, but it was to try to catch a wolf and get a reaction from him. If I continued on with it I would only be seeing if I could get a lynch to stick or not, but that's not my intention, I wanted to get the reaction and I got it so I dropped it. As a wolf it would have been better to let it go on, and if no one bites it then I turn around and go 'lol it was all fake just for reactions lol' and have my wolf partner back me up saying 'yeah he told me it was fake'.

By the time Tras responded, there would of been no need for you to continue pushing it because the BDS lynch was set in stone. Trying to fight tras there would of just brought even more attention on yourself and you can easily distance yourself from THC by having him have a heartbreaking anime betrayal when BDS flips green. Or THC is human and you pocketed him, and now you're trying to shift all the blame onto him. Both are very plausible.
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Toby

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Re: TWG CV (Off the Grid I): Roll of the Dice
« Reply #137 on: May 07, 2018, 03:50:20 PM »

Read the suspicion lists from yesterday, she was at the bottom of everybodies. I did think her being a wolf was a possibility if BDS was a wolf and the E Gadd or Tras lead didn't go anywhere.
Quote

Oops I guess I just thought it was so far from being a possibility that I missed that. But that was only Greg, E. Gadd and yourself (Firearrow) that had suspicion lists, so I'm still not sure if that counts as a majority clearing Raeko as human.

Quote
At this point, you PR hunting is seeming a lot more likely to me than Olimar claiming to Tras.

bruh the only 'pr hunting' that has apparently happened from me is from this log here and I don't even claim at all to be PR hunting. I say I don't think Greg is a normal human and then I pressure that I think he's a wolf ("You didn’t say you weren’t a wolf"). In no way do I even try to get him to tell me he is special, this has been so far stretched just because Greg initially jumped to the conclusion I was trying to say he was a wolf. Greg didn't even bring this up himself or admit he felt like I was PR hunting.

If you think I PR hunted Olimar?? How?? By PMing him? Don't you think this is something he would have posted, especially given that you think my Greg log suggests I was PR hunting? And what makes me want to post the log with Greg but not the log with Olimar? I'm confused on how this point makes sense.

Quote
Point being you gave us an elaborate statistical analysis that yeilds very little. Still looks more like a ploy to look more human than one to actually find wolves.

thats your opinion, do you think that I would really think, 'hey im suspicious lets go get some data to look less suspicious'. I've played twg for like 7 years now, I know that's now how it works.

Quote
THC is the lowest hanging fruit right now outside of yourself. Considering Greg's adamant suspicion of him throughout the entire game, it's probably also the easiest way for you to turn a lynch away from yourself. I'll give you THC is not the most human looking person right now, but it's mostly because he's such a perfect fit for being your partner.

If I was wolf idk why I would defend THC just to want to lynch him late. And I've not even said I've wanted him lynched yet, but he's one of the first people I've been able to re-assess my opinions on. If I was a wolf with this much pressure on me, it would be beneficial to not narrow down my pool of partners even more.

Quote
Yes, sheepish is a pretty bad word to describe the person about to push for your lynch if you can't convince me otherwise.

So it was this to me that made me think you were sort of sheeping the whole 'it wasnt bds so it must be toby'. And after reading the entire log then flicking back to the start and seeing this, it seemed like you were eating out of THC's paw with the 'toby tricked me' stuff.

log
ThatHiddenCharacter - Yesterday at 1:24 AM
I can't believe I fell for his trick
Gerik "FireArrow" - Yesterday at 1:24 AM
He's a good player

Gerik "FireArrow" - Yesterday at 1:24 AM
Don't feel too bad, just learn from this game
[close]

In hindsight this is very weak, and I was judging it all jumbled up together than chronologically. With that, along with this huge pressuring and seemingly not accepting the possibility I am also human, it seemed odd. But again, I've reeeaaally not looked into it as much as I can. I won't have much time today to do any digging but my exam tomorrow finished at 4pm so from then I will have 6 hours till phase end to do more on this. But my initial thought on it are weak, and will probably only be strengthened if I can find anything to believe you and THC may be partners.


Quote
By the time Tras responded, there would of been no need for you to continue pushing it because the BDS lynch was set in stone.

false, my lynch was seeming pretty much set in stone, and seemed like i would have nothing to lose by trying to get Tras lynched first (if i was wolf). Also you're backing out of this opinion that you had on discord:
Gerik "FireArrow" - Yesterday at 1:31 AM
Tras and toby are not likely partners
because of the whole log thing
I guess because Toby didn't pull the trigger, it could of been a distancing scheme
but at the same time, he couldn't of pulled the trigger because he told you

saying I couldn't have continued with the Tras thing because I told THC about it. but now you want to say that's irrelevant and the reason is because BDS's lynch was confirmed? Most of the votes where on me at that point if I remember correctly.

Quote
Trying to fight tras there would of just brought even more attention on yourself and you can easily distance yourself from THC by having him have a heartbreaking anime betrayal when BDS flips green. Or THC is human and you pocketed him, and now you're trying to shift all the blame onto him. Both are very plausible.

I got what i wanted, my reaction. and damn i waited 40+ hours for it, the phase was almost over I was happy to end the lie as quick as I could, I did not want to continue it much longer after getting Tras' reaction, which was a human one.

As a wolf I would not pocket thc. He is far too knew and possibly chaotic, not active enough and doesn't hold much weight in his posts.

(hi thc, your forum posts just aren't too lengthy and don't have much evidence to back them up, and I'm not sure if you've kept up with this games entirety (including discord (might be wrong)))



I really do think these points on me are weird. You want to believe i make the simplest rulebook wolf errors, but do it for convoluted 300iq reasons.
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Greg

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Re: TWG CV (Off the Grid I): Roll of the Dice
« Reply #138 on: May 08, 2018, 04:33:40 AM »

So here's my thoughts on several potential wolf teams, summarized from Discord discussion:

- Toby/(some combination of THC/EGadd/blueflower)

The best case for Toby to be a wolf still centers around his potential to have made the Olimar kill as well as all the weirdness surrounding Toby v BDS. However, I'm starting to have second thoughts about Toby being a wolf: starting from all the stuff last phase, and now his clear confusion with the nightkill (which seemed like the obvious nightkill to both me and FireArrow). Toby's definitely not the kind of guy to ignore his partners' choice of nightkill as a wolf.

Toby's log shenanigans eliminate Tras from consideration from this potential team, in my view.

- FireArrow/(some combination of THC/blueflower/Trasdegi)

Something I noticed recently was that FireArrow was pushing Toby vs BDS pretty hard last day phase, which would obviously work out great for him if he's a wolf and neither Toby nor BDS are. There's also the curious fact that he's put a lot more pressure on Toby compared to me, although he considered me his top suspicion throughout day 1. He's also a good potential pairing with THC since firstly, THC's reaction after BDS flipped was to suspect Toby immediately, and second, FireArrow has pretty much only considered THC wolfy as a partner for Toby. That being said, I'm doubtful FA would have wolfed Olimar, and he's backed off Toby in Discord (although that may have been as a reaction to me, who knows).

Don't think this team goes well with EGadd since FA's instant reaction to EGadd's suspicion list was to dislike it vocally in chat.

- Some combination of quieter players: THC/EGadd/Trasdegi/blueflower

Ehhh. This kind of implies that the Olimar wolfing was dumb luck, which seems pretty weird when you consider that the second wolfkill was pretty much the opposite of the first strategy-wise (being on the least suspicious player, rather than the most). I'm not really convinced by this possibility.


Anyway. If any of you have solid reasons why you can't be partners with people that I've partnered you with, I'd love to hear them.

blueflower999

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Re: TWG CV (Off the Grid I): Roll of the Dice
« Reply #139 on: May 08, 2018, 11:24:55 AM »

Anyway. If any of you have solid reasons why you can't be partners with people that I've partnered you with, I'd love to hear them.
If either of the top two were my wolf partners, they almost certainly would have convinced me to join the Discord for the sake of cooperation, especially Toby.

I'd love to hear a bit more from either THC or Tras before voting, but I'm not confident that I'm going to be around for phase end. THC I think is a pretty safe vote at the moment, but truthfully I haven't been able to read either that well. I might change this later if anything else happens.
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Toby

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Re: TWG CV (Off the Grid I): Roll of the Dice
« Reply #140 on: May 08, 2018, 07:05:11 PM »

forgot to post this for u blueflower, what do you think:

Toby - Yesterday at 2:37 AM
while im getting myself ready for sleep i want to check something quickly, @E. Gadd Industries are you here?
E. Gadd Industries - Yesterday at 2:41 AM
Yeah, but not for much longer; I have a big test tomorrow and want sleep
(And for this headache to go away, but that's another story for another time)
Toby - Yesterday at 2:43 AM
uhm its actually ok now
i was going to ask if you could point me in the direction of some of your human games
I've noticed in scrambled eggs you were very quiet and then came out in your 3rd post with  a big suspicion list, a similar thing happened here
I was looked at your other games, in woomy game (you are human) you never really come out with  a big suspicion list but you are consistently more active in that game than how your activity is in this game and how it was in scrambled eggs
your activity levels are also good in the monika game, but you do come out with a bit of a suspicion list, though not as bit as the one's I saw in this game or woomy
im thinking you're a lot less active as a wolf, but you always come out with a big suspicion list to look good
what do you think on that
and i cant even wait for a response or continue this i really need to sleep
also note that this is not my big suspicion and this is not strong i'm just pointing it out as an observation I'm making that I'll hopefully take more time into looking at tomorrow, and I want to collect e. gadds thoughts on this, and maybe if you have an explanation for the varying activity levels
E. Gadd Industries - Yesterday at 2:48 AM
Yeah, so my life is constantly in flux. When I'm school, it's consistently less, but even then, activity levels change as does the inflow of homework, finals, etc.
With regards to sus lists vs. not, I've only recently started playing seriously (if you want me to look for the specific game, I can look for it). And I feel as though giving an analysis on everyone is a good way to show seriousness to a game (and also helps me organize my thoughts on the game, along with showing everyone else my thoughts).
When summer break hits (here in 15ish days), my TWG activity will jump up considerably (until I go on a mission trip to New Orleans in July).This means that while I'll still be giving these analysis/sus posts, it'll seem more... regular? since I won't just go inactive for long stretches of time in between
And that's all I have rn. Have a good night
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Toby

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Re: TWG CV (Off the Grid I): Roll of the Dice
« Reply #141 on: May 08, 2018, 07:31:43 PM »

thc cant access pc and wanted this posted

ThatHiddenCharacter - Today at 2:08 AM
@Toby Earlier youentioned that you don't think I'd be comfortable faking suspicions on my partners as a wolf, but I disagree. I may not normally be a risk taker, but with this kind of game, I typically take more risks than I normally would and while it's not really that risky a play, I wouldn't put it past myself to do it as a wolf.
And that would have to be the case if I were a wolf, because the only people I haven't shown suspicion on are FA and Greg, and Greg has shown his suspicions on ke since day 1 with the only vote on ke so far this game.
*me
I'm starting to be slightly less suspicious of you, cause I wouldn't see a wolf working this hard, even to get a mislynch when it's already probable.
I do wanna hear more from @E. Gadd Industries, though before I output more brain energy. If he's available.
(When I said I'm not a risk taker, I meant in everything other than TWG. Not this specific game.)
Ping me if you respond, whoever you are that responds.
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Toby

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Re: TWG CV (Off the Grid I): Roll of the Dice
« Reply #142 on: May 08, 2018, 08:20:37 PM »

FireArrow, Greg brought up you were suspicious of him Day 1 then dropped it after. comments?
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Greg

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Re: TWG CV (Off the Grid I): Roll of the Dice
« Reply #143 on: May 08, 2018, 08:55:35 PM »

Okay, so blueflower voted for THC and he hasn't been wolf rushed yet. Interesting...

Guess this means either blueflower's a wolf or THC is. I'm inclined to think THC, personally.

Toby

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Re: TWG CV (Off the Grid I): Roll of the Dice
« Reply #144 on: May 08, 2018, 09:12:09 PM »

did not think of that


other options include you being partnered with Trasdegi and E. Gadd ?
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FireArrow

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Re: TWG CV (Off the Grid I): Roll of the Dice
« Reply #145 on: May 08, 2018, 09:19:58 PM »

FireArrow, Greg brought up you were suspicious of him Day 1 then dropped it after. comments?

I was suspicious of him d1 and d2 unti he switched his vote to bds, which seemed very human to me.

Trying to decide between toby or thc. A wolf wouldnt just through a vote out like that. Leaning toby but idk convince me.
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Toby

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Re: TWG CV (Off the Grid I): Roll of the Dice
« Reply #146 on: May 08, 2018, 09:21:14 PM »

i mean the option was me or bds, and there wasn't much in it
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Toby

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Re: TWG CV (Off the Grid I): Roll of the Dice
« Reply #147 on: May 08, 2018, 09:21:58 PM »

if i was a wolf and tras/thc aren't my partners this game would be over with thc lynched
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Toby

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Re: TWG CV (Off the Grid I): Roll of the Dice
« Reply #148 on: May 08, 2018, 09:22:38 PM »

well actually i guess that includes blueflower not being my partner
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FireArrow

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Re: TWG CV (Off the Grid I): Roll of the Dice
« Reply #149 on: May 08, 2018, 09:23:12 PM »

But if anyone would be your partner its thc
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