TWG CV (Off the Grid I): Roll of the Dice

Started by mikey, April 30, 2018, 12:54:04 PM

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FireArrow

When Im inactive I most definitly prefer posting to the thread so I dont have to put in the effort of maintaining a convo. Aboiding the thread just looks like you don't want to give people a chance to read you, so I don't buy ypur response.
Quote from: Dudeman on January 23, 2017, 05:35:59 PM
straight from the department of redundancy department

FireArrow

Also pretty sure raeko is human becuase a wolf would not go balls deep into the most active player after being gone for so long.
Quote from: Dudeman on January 23, 2017, 05:35:59 PM
straight from the department of redundancy department

blueflower999

Truthfully the fact that Toby wasn't wolfed and Olimar leads me to believe that EITHER the wolves somehow found out Olimar's role (or had very good reason to believe that he was a special role) OR Toby is a wolf, because he seems like an obvious target (going around accusing everyone).
Bulbear! Blueflower999

Toby

Quote from: E. Gadd Industries on May 03, 2018, 09:18:19 PMJust gonna jump in here & say that I never checked my role PM (officially) until sometime today. But I've known since the start of the game (or near then) because I checked my emails and anytime I get a PM here, I get an email containing the message. So there are definitely ways around Toby's argument here.
I mean, it's more convenient for someone rushing around trying not to drown in responsibility to talk to people in real time than to sit down and type out a post like this. But I guess whatever. I'll definitely be trying to be more active as the game progresses, and I'm actually developing some reads. Those will be posted sometime tomorrow. This gives me time to finalize everything, scrap together posts & the like.

Sure but Raeko said they checked their role PM on the forum, so I don't think they used their email or whatever. I think they were told their role by their wolf bud over discord.

Toby

Quote from: FireArrow on May 03, 2018, 09:47:39 PMAlso pretty sure raeko is human becuase a wolf would not go balls deep into the most active player after being gone for so long.

I believe they think they have no choice

Toby

Quote from: blueflower999 on May 03, 2018, 10:02:38 PMTruthfully the fact that Toby wasn't wolfed and Olimar leads me to believe that EITHER the wolves somehow found out Olimar's role (or had very good reason to believe that he was a special role) OR Toby is a wolf, because he seems like an obvious target (going around accusing everyone).

I agree I probably should have been wolfed, which is why I've been searching for some way that the wolves must have known Olimars role.

And I don't think I'm accusing everyone, I've probably put most people in possible scenarios where their behaviours could be justified by being a wolf, but the only real suspicions I have right now are bds and raeko


BlackDragonSlayer

Voting for Toby early just in case. :morton2:
And the moral of the story: Quit while you're a head.

Fakemon Dex
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The Dread Somber

Toby

Quote from: raeko on May 03, 2018, 06:38:45 PMHi thread! Get ready for me to show you all how Toby is a wolf

Let's start with the fact that he posted this log of his "suspicions" about me after I called him out in the Discord for being objectively wolfy.

...

Since I'm calling him a wolf he's decided I'm a wolf.

Forgot to respond to this

Both these points are false. If you checked time stamps you would see that I posted first, not you.


Everything else I already responded to in chat and I posted the log

Toby

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on May 04, 2018, 06:37:39 AMVoting for Toby early just in case. :morton2:

Interesting how you vote before Raeko when you've contributed very little to "Toby v Raeko". Also since your last viewpoint on it was this (on phone so can't give proper log but you can search it in chat for your own reference until I post it properly earlier):

BlackDragonSlayer Today at 2:19am
Toby is acting so obviously suspicious, but at the same time I can't help but wonder if he has a point about you not logging on until after role PMs were sent out.
Then again, he could easily be lying.

It seems like you were still thinking about it, and unless you have a sure judgement it doesn't seem reasonable to vote before Raeko, who is presenting everything against me.

You also add in the point where I could be lying. Me lying about a hard fact anyone can check is silly, but nowhere you suggest that Raeko can be the one lying, instead you suggest this:

BlackDraonSlayer Today at 2:21am
It's completely natural to doubt yourself.

Just seems like a bit of a contrast to how you're approaching the different sides of Toby v Raeko.



Also seems like you like being suspicious of being opposing you, see olimar

raeko

Quote from: Toby on May 04, 2018, 05:23:24 AMI believe they think they have no choice

do you really think your angle shooting scares me at all? It doesn't, I assure you. I'm going after you because your behaviour is objectively wolfy ;)

Greg

Here's a suspicion list. I think one of the most interesting things we have to go on is Olimar's wolfing: it seemed like a very strange wolfing to me given that Olimar was getting lynched until the last few minutes of Day 1. Some of the thoughts I had about that are reflected below.

1. Toby
I think one of Toby or BDS is probably a wolf, and I'm definitely leaning towards it being Toby, mostly due to his weird accusation of raeko (which she's already gone into at length). Toby said some other stuff later in Discord:
Spoiler
[5:15 AM] Toby: @Greg raeko said they knew their role, forum last active times says she hadn't looked at her PM, so my thought was someone on discord, her wolf bud pm'd her wanting to talk about game stuff and that's how she knew her role
[close]
but it's strange that he didn't just say that to begin with.

One thing I struggled to reconcile was the fact that Toby was the one who spearheaded the late lynch Day 1 which saved Olimar, making the wolfing from his perspective illogical. However, his post at day start about Olimar looking like a special (using some stuff from Discord which didn't even indicate to me that Olimar was special), means that he considered Olimar as a special, so I think that it's plausible he saved Olimar and then read him as a special and switched the wolfing based on that. (The fact that Brainy was human and kind of an easy lynch doesn't help his case.)
2. ThatHiddenCharacter
Still think this guy's super suspicious and he hasn't done anything to redeem himself since. I think this guy's a possible wolf partner for Toby since he was involved in Toby's suspicion of FA (the brutal stuff): it's possible they communicated beforehand. (That's a bit less likely giving the timing of the log, since they would only have had a few minutes, but it's possible!)
3. BlackDragonSlayer
If Toby's not a wolf BDS goes to the top, but for now he stays here. I think he's a possibility for wolfing Olimar since he said in Discord that he was "giving human points" to people who were suspicious of Olimar whereas I would instinctively do the opposite, but it's not that clear cut (for one thing, why would he say this at all as a wolf?). Another point against him is his lack of contribution to the lynch Day 1. On the other hand I think his frustration with people's accusations of him reads to me as genuine, and I also have a tendency to read BDS as a wolf too much anyway.
4. E.Gadd Industries
Probably the most suspicious inactive. The stuff that he has done has been pretty bandwagoney. I also think he's a good candidate for wolfing Olimar, since a bunch of people jumped on him for his vote on Olimar Day 1 and that could have given him the perception that the consensus view of Olimar's wolfiness was turning around.
5. FireArrow
What FA has posted has been logical and human enough, from my point of view, but he's been a lot less aggressive than I remember. He hasn't pushed his suspicion of me nearly as hard as I expected, for instance, or even questioned me that much (although he did in chat right before I posted this as it happens). Maybe he's worried about me flipping human? Also not a bad partner for Toby since he came down on Toby's side in the Toby/BDS thing. Still a human lean for me though: I've gotten the impression that he's busy with other stuff so that would explain everything, and I doubt he wolfs Olimar.
6. blueflower999
Don't remember much about what Blueflower's done this game, but this kind of activity is fairly typical if I remember correctly. He made a pretty decent point about the wolfing earlier as well which gives me a human lean.
7. Trasdegi
Still think Tras is human based on his early message to me but there's not a whole lot else to go on here. I'll reconsider when I see the message between Tras and Olimar that supposedly exists.
8. raeko
I find it extremely unlikely that a wolf would immediately get on Toby's case (someone who was extremely active and not a target of suspicion) after being absent for most of the first day. Also I've talked to her on Discord and got the impression she was human from that.

blueflower999

I'm tempted to jump on the Toby bandwagon because I do find it more likely that he's a wolf than that the wolves somehow found out Olimar's role. However, I'll abstain for the time being to give Toby more time to defend himself.

Toby, do you propose a mechanism for the wolves to have learned Olimar's role, or do you think the wolves are trying to frame you with some kind of reverse-psychology business?
Bulbear! Blueflower999

Toby

Quote from: Greg on May 04, 2018, 02:45:31 PM1. Toby
I think one of Toby or BDS is probably a wolf, and I'm definitely leaning towards it being Toby, mostly due to his weird accusation of raeko (which she's already gone into at length). Toby said some other stuff later in Discord:
Spoiler
[5:15 AM] Toby: @Greg raeko said they knew their role, forum last active times says she hadn't looked at her PM, so my thought was someone on discord, her wolf bud pm'd her wanting to talk about game stuff and that's how she knew her role
[close]
but it's strange that he didn't just say that to begin with.

I did?

Toby - Today at 12:47 AM
how
forum says your last active time was before role pm's were even sent out
unless someone told you your role over discord :thinking:

Quote from: Greg on May 04, 2018, 02:45:31 PMOne thing I struggled to reconcile was the fact that Toby was the one who spearheaded the late lynch Day 1 which saved Olimar, making the wolfing from his perspective illogical. However, his post at day start about Olimar looking like a special (using some stuff from Discord which didn't even indicate to me that Olimar was special), means that he considered Olimar as a special,
His cardflip told us he was special, and it was an odd wolfing. I wasn't the only one to think of the possibility that the wolves might have somehow guessed Olimar as special:


raeko - Today at 9:48 PM
there was 24 hours where we were allowed to talk in between the lynch and when the kill happened
my guess is that he or another wolf found out oli was the PR within that time, or guessed it based on how he was talking
Greg - Today at 9:49 PM
hmmm
that's in the "possible but unlikely" category for me I think
well let me see if anything Olimar said gives an indication

even you did, and you, just like I did, went and looked to see if there was anything that Olimar said that seemed special like.

Here's my post bringing up what I found:
my post
Quote from: Toby on May 03, 2018, 02:19:36 PMThis happened on discord:

Olimar12345 - Today at 9:15 PM
Raeko is right; discussion during the night only helps the wolves.
If there is a special human role, they can function independently.
It's not worth shooting our selves in the foot.
Just to maybe help a special

This is the only reason I really see for someone to target Olimar - with the thought he could be special.

This happened 45mins before phase end though, so it would be a bit of a quick change that I don't see one wolf making on his own.

Below is the a list of members last active times:

Greg: Today at 15:50:31
Bds: Today at 20:09:24
firearrow: Today at 21:43:49
Blue: Today at 18:14:47
Thc: Today at 18:36:28
E. gadd: Today at 16:16:15
Tras: Today at 22:09:33
Raeko: April 30, 2018, 22:27:59

The only thing to add onto this, is when searching I noticed THC was online on discord, but his last active time was about 6 hours ago for the forum.

If we are to believe at least 2 wolves communicated and changed the wolfing based on this discord post, that would leave:
THC
FireArrow
Trasdegi
[close]

See in bold that I say that's the only reason I found - that quote. I know it's weak, which is kind of why i said 'only', while yes it was the sole thing that I could see that might indicate Olimar as being a special, I didn't say 'i think this is the reason why wolves may have thought olimar was special'. Also, if you understand more of the context of where that quote came from you might understand better, I failed to provide it so my bad I guess. But, Raeko had been saying at that time that we shouldn't need to discuss our suspicions at all during the night phase, as it might aid the wolves. Sometime afterwards Olimar drops this:

Olimar12345 - Today at 9:15 PM
Raeko is right; discussion during the night only helps the wolves.
If there is a special human role, they can function independently.
It's not worth shooting our selves in the foot.
Just to maybe help a special

There was no mention of specials not needing co-ordination previously in the chat, this was something Olimar brought up on his own. And he seems to show off a confident viewpoint that specials can do their role by themselves. As said previously, it was weak, but it was the only thing I could think of to indicate the wolves somehow finding out, and the wolfing was really odd, so I wanted to believe it, which is why I followed up on it.

Quote from: Greg on May 04, 2018, 02:45:31 PMso I think that it's plausible he saved Olimar and then read him as a special and switched the wolfing based on that. (The fact that Brainy was human and kind of an easy lynch doesn't help his case.)
So I do this, then I bring up the chat log that I read Olimar special for, to the whole topic. Then I judge that if that was the reason someone found out Olimar was special, they must have changed their wolfing after the post. So I bring up last active times, and bring up a final list of 3 people (4 if you want to include me because I was online then too) that must be the wolves to have switched the wolfing, and say that I think there is a wolf pairing within that. That's me telling the topic that out of 4 people (including me) 50% of those are a wolf.

I just don't really understand this logic.

Greg

I mean, I went and looked, but not only was this long after the fact, but I also didn't find anything that would indicate Olimar being a special (like I said, I didn't read the thing you posted as Olimar being a special). If anything, I thought it ought to point to raeko as being a special, rather than Olimar. Your post was very soon after the end of the phase, which makes it more plausible that you thought of it before phase end!

I'll also grant you that you posted this logic publicly, but you didn't actually put your name in the list you posted. That might be innocent but it also might not be!

Toby

Quote from: blueflower999 on May 04, 2018, 03:01:04 PMI'm tempted to jump on the Toby bandwagon because I do find it more likely that he's a wolf than that the wolves somehow found out Olimar's role. However, I'll abstain for the time being to give Toby more time to defend himself.
what. just because you find it so unlikely that the wolves guessed olimar was a special, doesn't mean you can just vote me because other's did.

Quote from: blueflower999 on May 04, 2018, 03:01:04 PMToby, do you propose a mechanism for the wolves to have learned Olimar's role, or do you think the wolves are trying to frame you with some kind of reverse-psychology business?
If you're suggesting Olimar was wolfed to frame me, I disagree? It wouldn't seem logical. Half the game wants him dead, and he was second favoured for the lynch yesterday, and only second because I saved him. Olimar agreed with my viewpoints on BDS when no one else did. Wolfing Olimar means that I lose a top lynch candidate to soak up all the votes, I lose someone who agrees with me on a lot of points, and means I'm solo opposing BDS. It does not make sense for me as a wolf to go for Olimar, or for a wolf to kill of Olimar to frame me.

I put forward my points and suspicions towards BDS and Raeko almost immediately. Following that, they both have decided to go against me. What I'm seeing here seems like the starting of a bandwagon, particularly from you now (i presume from your post here that you want to go against me just because you see a majority is). I believe Greg's suspicion now towards me is due to conflicting(?)/unclear info. I believe the wolves are Raeko and BDS, and if I'm right, and you have to think of this possibility no matter your stance, then you can't just agree with their viewpoint, just because they're two people against one.

Some of the points Raeko has put across, she has ignored time frames (may be intentional or not) and that is solidifying some of her points. I already cleared this up in a previous post. And because she is excessively going against me, and for some reason has BDS backing up her every point, I'm looking bad really quick.